breaking / Semiconductors

🚨 ASML Just Smashed Profit Forecasts With €5 Billion — and Says It Can't Build Chip Machines Fast Enough Until 2029

ASML posted €4.96bn Q3 profit vs ~€4.1bn expected, guided Q4 sales to €14.2–15.2bn and warned supply won't meet demand in 2027–28.

By Tech Arcade··2 min read

ASML Just Smashed Profit Forecasts With €5 Billion — and Says It Can't Build Chip Machines Fast Enough Until 2029 — Tech Arcade
Photo: Michael / Unsplash

ASML just reported €5.0 billion in third-quarter net income, about €830 million more than analysts expected, and told the world its customers want more chipmaking machines than it can build through 2028 (ASML).

The Dutch company, the only maker of the EUV lithography machines that print the world’s most advanced chips, released the numbers at 07:00 Amsterdam time on Wednesday, 14 October.

The timing matters. Chip stocks have spent the week sliding, and ASML’s own shares fell 4.2% on Tuesday (Saxo).

⚡ What Happened

  • Net sales: €11.7 billion, a company record, up from €9.3 billion last quarter and near the top of its own €11–12 billion guidance (ASML).
  • Net income: €4.96 billion, against an analyst forecast of about €4.13 billion (Invezz).
  • Gross margin: 57.5%, up from 54.0% in the second quarter and above the 55.9% analysts had pencilled in.
  • 113 new lithography systems sold, up from 86 the quarter before.

Then the guidance. ASML expects €14.2 to €15.2 billion in fourth-quarter sales, which would beat this quarter’s record by at least €2.5 billion. Full-year 2026 sales are now pinned at €44 to €45 billion.

“…we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers.” — Christophe Fouquet, ASML CEO

🧠 Why It Matters

The most advanced AI chips can’t be made without ASML’s EUV machines. So when ASML says demand will outrun supply for two more years, it is telling you that the chipmakers who buy its tools are still planning to build more, not less.

That cuts against the mood in markets this week, where investors have been dumping chip stocks over fears the AI build-out is peaking.

ASML is already planning a 30% capacity increase for 2027 and says it is now looking at ways to go beyond the 30% boost it previously planned for 2028. Fouquet also said some customers are expressing interest in orders for 2029 and even 2030. That is interest, not signed orders, but it is a long way to look ahead.

🔜 What To Watch

  • The share price. ASML trades in Amsterdam from 08:00 London time, and it was about 14% below its June record going in (Invezz).
  • TSMC on Thursday. One of ASML’s biggest customers reports its own third-quarter results, and its spending plans will show whether the demand ASML describes turns into firm orders.
  • Bookings. ASML did not report a quarterly bookings figure in its release, so analysts will press for order detail on the earnings call.

Reaction is still coming in, and analyst commentary will follow through the morning.

Sources

❓ Quick answers

Did ASML beat earnings expectations in Q3 2026?

Yes on profit: ASML reported €4.96bn net income on 14 October 2026 versus analyst forecasts of about €4.1bn, while sales of €11.7bn were roughly in line.

What is ASML's Q4 2026 guidance?

ASML expects fourth-quarter 2026 net sales of €14.2bn to €15.2bn with a gross margin of around 57%, and full-year sales of €44–45bn, per its 14 October release.

Why does ASML say it can't meet demand?

CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers keep raising demand forecasts and that ASML's currently planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet it; it is looking to expand 2028 capacity beyond a planned 30% increase.